These economic graphs relate the growth and expansion.
Declining shipping expenditures seems to be a decent economic warning signal.
Declining heavy truck sales is often an economic warning sign.
Strain in businesses and household leverage markets often serve as an economic warning sign.
Declining activity may be a warning sign.
When GDP exceeds potential GDP, inflation risks rise.
Nomimal GDP is total economic growth before does not adjust for inflation.
“The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.”
The state coincident indicators seem to decline prior to recessions.
When new permits for housing are being issued at lower levels, this may hint at a slowdown.
Low confidence is associated with economic lows or the start of a growth cycle.
A decline in growth of workforce participation is ominous.
Job growth variance by sector.
High levels indicate high spending potential. Declining levels indicate money is being spent and inflation may rise (and visa versa).
When inventory levels at businesses are low, this seems to imply shortages in goods and higher levels of inflation.
Nominal GDP growth is somwhat tied to long-term interest rates and seems to decline prior to recessions.
When the supply of money is growing, it is not being spent and inflation is lower. However, when money is being spent the supply shrinks and inflation often rises.